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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Three things have surfaced, that collectively might mean an increase in our earlier estimate that 4,100, 2015 Z06's will be produced. Perhaps when we get Z06 pricing and the Order Guide in just 28 days, we might get confirmed production information. Doubt it, but wouldn't that be nice! Might GM be planning on producing as many as 5,000, 2015 Z06's?


First, let's backtrack as to how we arrived at our earlier estimate that 4,100, 2015 Z06's would be produced, primarily by taking Harlan Charles' statement (Corvette Corral video, Daytona Raceway, January) that GM is going to produce Z06's at the same rate as they produced C6 Z06's in the first few years, e.g., at a rate of 650 per month. The announced Z06 production year will be January through June, 2015. Hence, we took that 3,900 units, added to that amount a little bit, as we thought Z06 "customer car" production would start probably during December, thus estimating a total 4,100, 2015 Z06's would be manufactured.

Here are some things that recently surfaced, not just once or twice, but several times from multiple sources, that collectively suggest that the amount of 2015 Z06's to be produced will probably be higher.

1) Customer Z06's will probably start down the line not in December, but November. (This is similar to GM beating both it's published StingRay coupe and its StingRay convertible "customer delivery date" promises, the latter by over one month). It will not be full-speed Z06 production in November, but rather slow, progressive ramp up -- just as was done with the StingRays. However, this could mean maximum daily Z06 production is reached sometime in December.

I keep wondering why the Plant will be closed to the public on December 11th. Might this be "full Z06 production initial-test-day?"

2) More than a few top dealers were surprised that their StingRay allocations for the second half of the 2015 model year were lower than they projected, i.e., while only one would give me hard a hard number, all said that they their StingRay allocation was reduced in the second half of the 2015 model year, by more than they expected. One could conclude that this was because those dealers sold fewer 2014 StingRays than they and/or GM projected, but the opposite is the case, for every dealer I communicated with, said they did better in their 2014 StingRay sales than they originally planned and hoped for.

Why would cause StingRay 2015 calendar year allocations to decline from expected levels? Perhaps, as some have speculated, StingRay sales are declining. But this does not make sense, 1) because we just saw July's 3,000+ StingRay sales, 2) does not fit with BGAP remaining on overtime, (currently at its highest StingRay production rate, e.g., averaging 175 units/day), and 3) earlier this spring, GM invested tens of millions to help their suppliers ramp up production (suppliers that GM does not have an ownership interest in).

I believe that the reason why many large dealers are seeing larger than expected declines in their second-half 2015 model year StingRay allocations, is that they will be receiving more Z06 allocations than they originally estimated.

We earlier learned that 2015 Z06 pricing and the Order Guide will be released August 31st. Consequently, if the Z06 dealer allocation announcement timeline were to parallel the StingRay's allocation timeline (the latter being announced before pricing for the StingRay's 2015's was released), dealers could know their Z06 allocations in the next few weeks.

3) While the Assembly Plant has traditionally taken two full weeks off for Christmas break, the publicly announced winter BGAP calendar shows a shorter break of December 24th-31st only, though we know that the Plant will not operate on January 1st. (One can now book BGAP public tours on December 23rd, and starting again on January 2nd.)

For the past few months, keep thinking about "Redc7's" projection, that as soon as the Z06 slow, progressive, ramp up is completed, GM will intermix as many Z06's into the production line as they possibly can (to maximize profits, to produce as many as they can to attempt to met the overwhelming demand, or, more realistically, to at least meet a significant portion of Z06 submitted, status 1100 orders).

In 2007, even when faced with the comparable complexity of simultaneously producing wide-bodied C6 Z06's and regular-bodied C6's (and at that time the Plant was further faced with a different chassis to integrate), 736 Z06's were produced monthly. Perhaps 2015 Z06 monthly production could consequently be 736 units per month, maybe even more?

If C7 Z06 production were to start slowly in November, reach full production rate sometime in December, and if 736 or more C7 Z06's were produced monthly between January through June, might as many as 5,000, 2015 Z06's be produced?

We all hope so!
 

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Very good fodder for the Z06 hopeful...but like anything else the facts will tell the tale. I wish we could have a crystal ball but I still stick to my 10% theory/Guess. If nothing else you have brought up some great talking points...and in the end everyone will need to have patience for what will most definitely be the coolest of the Cool Corvettes for any of our times! 2015 Z06!
 

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Nice thoughts and nice detective work John. I believe that it's in GM's best interest to start to build the Z06 as soon as possible and as many as possible. One reason is the publicity GM will get out of the Z06 will be huge being a super car, almost as much as the new C7 itself. As well as trying to recoup the R&D costs as soon as possible. Money talks.

One thought I had about the lower allocation that it makes sense it's due to the Z06. But it might also be due to GM deciding to spread the allocation across more dealers as well as more shipments overseas.
 

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You know those bolt holes on the front of the LT1 that are not used for anything on the StingRay or Z51? Why are they there? How much would someone want to bet against those being for the supercharger to bolt on?

My point is, this isn't GM's first trip around the block (har-dee har har, the "block" as in engine block, get it? All puns intended here! - I digress). They really thought ahead on this C7. There is no question in my mind but what they also thought ahead on all the other parts, chassis, marrying the drivetrain, everything. I would like to go on record saying my guess is they will be able to churn out Z06 at a rate higher than they were ever able to in previous years. Why? I believe they really thought this one through from the beginning.

Okay, flame me now if you wish. :)
 

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Discussion Starter #5 (Edited)
No flaming here. Hope you are right and had that thought will putting the thread together. The C6 was put together on an assembly line that parts of it dated back to 1986. You know that they learned a lot putting together the C6's, as Tadge was the Assistant Chief Engineer during most of that generation, so with every piece of the Assembly Plant either being all new or totally reconfigured during the Plant complete re-do 1 1/2years ago, all their C6 "assembling a car learnings" were incorporated into the $130,000,000 Plant makeover. As Dave Tatman said last year, we even sanded the floor, painted the ceilings in the Plant makeover.

We know BGAP can not run a convertible back to back because certain procedures take longer than average. So far, we haven't a clue as to whether a Z06 can be run back to back, or conversely can not occur more frequently than every fifth car (more probably somewhere between those numbers).

Currently daily Corvette average production is 175/day, or 875 per week, or approximately 3,675 per month. If Harlan's statement is exactly right (have zero reason to doubt him) and they can produce 650 per month, that means that about one in every 5.65 cars could be a Z06. Interesting to see, say next Spring, from folks watching the line, what the ratio is, and how closely they can make a Z06 to another Z06. Might we see at one point the following cars in order go down the line, e.g., a Z06, a coupe, a convertible, then another Z06??? Total guessing right now...., though we all know Plant personnel have this totally figured out by now.
 

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I'm thinking that if the base Z06 pricing isn't to high,then I believe more people will be buying the Z06 than the 2015 C7.
 

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John, I think that is great news for all and I can't wait to see the Z06 in person!! The Z06 will be the "C7 Ultimate Masterpiece"!!! And when John aka elegant post the first pictures of his Z06, you will see the biggest grin this forum has ever captured.

SF
Rick
 

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I have to wonder about the "parts priority" that the ZO6 shares with the base / Z-51 car. I can well imagine that the Z06 will get the priority, and I have to believe the constraint issue will rear its ugly head...Big time!
 

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Discussion Starter #9
I have to wonder about the "parts priority" that the ZO6 shares with the base / Z-51 car. I can well imagine that the Z06 will get the priority, and I have to believe the constraint issue will rear its ugly head...Big time!
Think you have hit the nail on the head Chip, for at this point, as one example, we believe the CFZ and Pacific versions share some of the same aero pieces with the stage 2 & 3 Z06's, especially as Harlan indicated six months ago that their will be constraints on some Z06 aero pieces.
 

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I like the logically approach you use John vs pure gut or instinct. Your post made me wonder. I'm going to see if 2015 Stingray allocation number have changed up here in Canada also. Just for curiosity....granted we already know that we are not seeing to many Z06's up her this year. So number could remain similar vs drop.
 

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Think you have hit the nail on the head Chip, for at this point, as one example, we believe the CFZ and Pacific versions share some of the same aero pieces with the stage 2 & 3 Z06's, especially as Harlan indicated six months ago that their will be constraints on some Z06 aero pieces.
John; I also have to wonder about the dept. within the corvette ordering system that forecasts which option items will be in demand and make the necessary adjustments so that those "in demand" parts don't slow down the customers delivery time. They have had nearly a year to make the necessary internal inventory volume adjustments, so let's hope that job is closer to real demand than was the case for the 2014 models. I see that production dates are being pushed back even now, so I can only hope that is not because of part shortages already.
 

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Discussion Starter #13 (Edited)
Very good fodder for the Z06 hopeful...but like anything else the facts will tell the tale. I wish we could have a crystal ball but I still stick to my 10% theory/Guess. If nothing else you have brought up some great talking points...and in the end everyone will need to have patience for what will most definitely be the coolest of the Cool Corvettes for any of our times! 2015 Z06!
Mike's estimate looks further verified by the following internet post by "Conmax."
*******
"Are these allocations legit? Since Conti released the z06 schedule last week, i have heard theat some dealers already have theirs.

Here is on from a non forum dealer. i had my doubts and asked him for proof. He said he had 9 left and requires a 5k deposit.

"No actual document to send you......we were allocated a 10% allocation based on our 2014 Model Year Stingray retail sales of 141 units."

"We are not authorized so sent official General Motors Documents".

Paul Dragich
Sales/Leasing Consultant

Paul Masse Chevrolet
1111 Taunton Avenue
East Providence, RI 02914
401-434-1900
*****

Considering that 36,674 2014 Corvettes were made this year, the above 10% prediction would lead us to conclude approximately 3,667, Z06's will be produced in 2015 model year, i.e., we now have another dealer stating what we previously heard, that 2015 allocations will be based solely on 2014 StingRay sales, then further adding that the allocation relationship will be one 2015 Z06 for every 10, 2014 StingRay's sold. If accurate, it would be very very simple for all of us, and all dealers, to know their 2015 Z06 allocation.

However, with the 2015 yearly production rate increasing to 40,000 units, per Plant Manager Jeff LaMarche, we are agin back to about 4,000 2015 Z06's....

Verification in the not too distant future?
 

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At 10% I will not be able to get a 2015. I am too far down the list, even though I got on it in late winter.
 

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John,
"Considering that 36,674 2014 Corvettes were made this year, the above 10% prediction would lead us to conclude approximately 3,667, Z06's will be produced in 2015 model year"


The 3667 would be for an entire year? The 2015 is only a half year car, ie 3667/2 = 1834 cars for its half year production.
Of course, if that is 10% for a half year (2015) then that would be correct, and it would work out to 20% for a full years, ie 1 out 5 = Z06.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Yes, believe that they will, as "RedC7" suggested months ago, run Z06's down the line as many as they can after initial ramp up, guesstimating every fifth car. Two reasons: get them out ASAP to start to pay back R&D, and with the number of StingRay convertibles piling up at bigger dealers, cut back on 2015 convertible production -- giving them more production slots for the Z06.

I am thinking that if they run a Z06 every fifth car, in 26 weeks with their daily rate an average of 175 per day, that would result in about 4,550 Z06's. Perhaps they will instead run them every sixth car, e.g. 3,800 cars? And neither rate accounts for any pre-January ramp up production.

Interesting, no matter how we slice the numbers, other than that one completely wrong estimate of only 500 Z06's, all the rest of the estimates, including Harlan's most important statement that "we will be producing them at the same rate as we did the first few years of the Z06" (about 650/mo.), all end us in the 3,500 to 5,000, 2015 Z06 production range.

Wonder how many more ways we will slice this apple before the facts come out??? LOL
 

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John,
"Considering that 36,674 2014 Corvettes were made this year, the above 10% prediction would lead us to conclude approximately 3,667, Z06's will be produced in 2015 model year"


The 3667 would be for an entire year? The 2015 is only a half year car, ie 3667/2 = 1834 cars for its half year production.
Of course, if that is 10% for a half year (2015) then that would be correct, and it would work out to 20% for a full years, ie 1 out 5 = Z06.






The Top Corvette Dealers of 2014 ? Mid Year Report


Calendar Year to Date Report
Rank Total Retail Deliveries (Retail + Retail Direct) Corvettes

For the calendar year starting in January and running through June 30, 2014, GM has reported a total of 17,744 Corvettes sold. The top Corvette dealers on this list account for 41.5% of those sales which total 7,370.


Z06 Allocation is 10% of 2014 Sales
These are the halfway mark for 2014 sales by the top 6 corvette dealers.

Assume full year is twice for 2014 and then 10% of that is the allocation for the 2015 MY Z06:


1 KERBECK CADILLAC CHEVROLET BUICK GMC 672 * 2 (full year) *10% allocation for Z06 = 134
2 MAC MULKIN CHEVROLET CADILLAC 528 = 106
3 LES STANFORD CHEVROLET CADILLAC INC. 337 = 67
4 CRISWELL CHEVROLET, INC 277 = 55
5 COUGHLIN AUTOMOTIVE, LLC 272 = 54
6 RICK HENDRICK CHEVROLET 266 = 53

99 KOONS CHEVROLET 26 = 5


Better be on a list at one of the top 100 in the nation as even #99 will only get 5 Z06 allocations.

7370 sold in first half represents 42% of sales of the Corvette Stingray = 14740 for a full year *0.2 = 1474
1474 *0.58/0.42 for total of all other dealers = 2036 (the others) + 1474 ( the top 100) = 3510 total Z06 allocations


The value is low as total sales 14740 + 20355 = 35, 095 is on the low side...say increase by 10% Z06 allocation = 3860


** Disclaimer - this has been prepared by the deranged mind of a Corvette owner and is therefore subject to change
 

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Well being on a list at a top 15 dealership does very little for a guy when 10% equates to 23 cars and you are #38 on the list.

:(
 

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Discussion Starter #19
I also believe one must be tied to a medium or bigger sized dealer in order to insure one gets a Z06, for as we have heard from two dealers who were part of the original 900 StingRay allocated dealers last year, that they are not getting a single Z06.

Therefore, it seems that GM is reducing the original 900 StingRay allocated dealerships to a lesser number. Might we later learn that only the top 250 dealers will get a 2015 Z06, or the top 100 dealers???

At this point, outside of GM, we are conjecturing, other than we know some of the 900 dealers have been told "no Z06," and therefore the amount of dealers who will be getting a 2015 Z06 will be less than 900. Hopefully this will all become clear August 28th.
 
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