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Three things have surfaced, that collectively might mean an increase in our earlier estimate that 4,100, 2015 Z06's will be produced. Perhaps when we get Z06 pricing and the Order Guide in just 28 days, we might get confirmed production information. Doubt it, but wouldn't that be nice! Might GM be planning on producing as many as 5,000, 2015 Z06's?
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First, let's backtrack as to how we arrived at our earlier estimate that 4,100, 2015 Z06's would be produced, primarily by taking Harlan Charles' statement (Corvette Corral video, Daytona Raceway, January) that GM is going to produce Z06's at the same rate as they produced C6 Z06's in the first few years, e.g., at a rate of 650 per month. The announced Z06 production year will be January through June, 2015. Hence, we took that 3,900 units, added to that amount a little bit, as we thought Z06 "customer car" production would start probably during December, thus estimating a total 4,100, 2015 Z06's would be manufactured.
Here are some things that recently surfaced, not just once or twice, but several times from multiple sources, that collectively suggest that the amount of 2015 Z06's to be produced will probably be higher.
1) Customer Z06's will probably start down the line not in December, but November. (This is similar to GM beating both it's published StingRay coupe and its StingRay convertible "customer delivery date" promises, the latter by over one month). It will not be full-speed Z06 production in November, but rather slow, progressive ramp up -- just as was done with the StingRays. However, this could mean maximum daily Z06 production is reached sometime in December.
I keep wondering why the Plant will be closed to the public on December 11th. Might this be "full Z06 production initial-test-day?"
2) More than a few top dealers were surprised that their StingRay allocations for the second half of the 2015 model year were lower than they projected, i.e., while only one would give me hard a hard number, all said that they their StingRay allocation was reduced in the second half of the 2015 model year, by more than they expected. One could conclude that this was because those dealers sold fewer 2014 StingRays than they and/or GM projected, but the opposite is the case, for every dealer I communicated with, said they did better in their 2014 StingRay sales than they originally planned and hoped for.
Why would cause StingRay 2015 calendar year allocations to decline from expected levels? Perhaps, as some have speculated, StingRay sales are declining. But this does not make sense, 1) because we just saw July's 3,000+ StingRay sales, 2) does not fit with BGAP remaining on overtime, (currently at its highest StingRay production rate, e.g., averaging 175 units/day), and 3) earlier this spring, GM invested tens of millions to help their suppliers ramp up production (suppliers that GM does not have an ownership interest in).
I believe that the reason why many large dealers are seeing larger than expected declines in their second-half 2015 model year StingRay allocations, is that they will be receiving more Z06 allocations than they originally estimated.
We earlier learned that 2015 Z06 pricing and the Order Guide will be released August 31st. Consequently, if the Z06 dealer allocation announcement timeline were to parallel the StingRay's allocation timeline (the latter being announced before pricing for the StingRay's 2015's was released), dealers could know their Z06 allocations in the next few weeks.
3) While the Assembly Plant has traditionally taken two full weeks off for Christmas break, the publicly announced winter BGAP calendar shows a shorter break of December 24th-31st only, though we know that the Plant will not operate on January 1st. (One can now book BGAP public tours on December 23rd, and starting again on January 2nd.)
For the past few months, keep thinking about "Redc7's" projection, that as soon as the Z06 slow, progressive, ramp up is completed, GM will intermix as many Z06's into the production line as they possibly can (to maximize profits, to produce as many as they can to attempt to met the overwhelming demand, or, more realistically, to at least meet a significant portion of Z06 submitted, status 1100 orders).
In 2007, even when faced with the comparable complexity of simultaneously producing wide-bodied C6 Z06's and regular-bodied C6's (and at that time the Plant was further faced with a different chassis to integrate), 736 Z06's were produced monthly. Perhaps 2015 Z06 monthly production could consequently be 736 units per month, maybe even more?
If C7 Z06 production were to start slowly in November, reach full production rate sometime in December, and if 736 or more C7 Z06's were produced monthly between January through June, might as many as 5,000, 2015 Z06's be produced?
We all hope so!
First, let's backtrack as to how we arrived at our earlier estimate that 4,100, 2015 Z06's would be produced, primarily by taking Harlan Charles' statement (Corvette Corral video, Daytona Raceway, January) that GM is going to produce Z06's at the same rate as they produced C6 Z06's in the first few years, e.g., at a rate of 650 per month. The announced Z06 production year will be January through June, 2015. Hence, we took that 3,900 units, added to that amount a little bit, as we thought Z06 "customer car" production would start probably during December, thus estimating a total 4,100, 2015 Z06's would be manufactured.
Here are some things that recently surfaced, not just once or twice, but several times from multiple sources, that collectively suggest that the amount of 2015 Z06's to be produced will probably be higher.
1) Customer Z06's will probably start down the line not in December, but November. (This is similar to GM beating both it's published StingRay coupe and its StingRay convertible "customer delivery date" promises, the latter by over one month). It will not be full-speed Z06 production in November, but rather slow, progressive ramp up -- just as was done with the StingRays. However, this could mean maximum daily Z06 production is reached sometime in December.
I keep wondering why the Plant will be closed to the public on December 11th. Might this be "full Z06 production initial-test-day?"
2) More than a few top dealers were surprised that their StingRay allocations for the second half of the 2015 model year were lower than they projected, i.e., while only one would give me hard a hard number, all said that they their StingRay allocation was reduced in the second half of the 2015 model year, by more than they expected. One could conclude that this was because those dealers sold fewer 2014 StingRays than they and/or GM projected, but the opposite is the case, for every dealer I communicated with, said they did better in their 2014 StingRay sales than they originally planned and hoped for.
Why would cause StingRay 2015 calendar year allocations to decline from expected levels? Perhaps, as some have speculated, StingRay sales are declining. But this does not make sense, 1) because we just saw July's 3,000+ StingRay sales, 2) does not fit with BGAP remaining on overtime, (currently at its highest StingRay production rate, e.g., averaging 175 units/day), and 3) earlier this spring, GM invested tens of millions to help their suppliers ramp up production (suppliers that GM does not have an ownership interest in).
I believe that the reason why many large dealers are seeing larger than expected declines in their second-half 2015 model year StingRay allocations, is that they will be receiving more Z06 allocations than they originally estimated.
We earlier learned that 2015 Z06 pricing and the Order Guide will be released August 31st. Consequently, if the Z06 dealer allocation announcement timeline were to parallel the StingRay's allocation timeline (the latter being announced before pricing for the StingRay's 2015's was released), dealers could know their Z06 allocations in the next few weeks.
3) While the Assembly Plant has traditionally taken two full weeks off for Christmas break, the publicly announced winter BGAP calendar shows a shorter break of December 24th-31st only, though we know that the Plant will not operate on January 1st. (One can now book BGAP public tours on December 23rd, and starting again on January 2nd.)
For the past few months, keep thinking about "Redc7's" projection, that as soon as the Z06 slow, progressive, ramp up is completed, GM will intermix as many Z06's into the production line as they possibly can (to maximize profits, to produce as many as they can to attempt to met the overwhelming demand, or, more realistically, to at least meet a significant portion of Z06 submitted, status 1100 orders).
In 2007, even when faced with the comparable complexity of simultaneously producing wide-bodied C6 Z06's and regular-bodied C6's (and at that time the Plant was further faced with a different chassis to integrate), 736 Z06's were produced monthly. Perhaps 2015 Z06 monthly production could consequently be 736 units per month, maybe even more?
If C7 Z06 production were to start slowly in November, reach full production rate sometime in December, and if 736 or more C7 Z06's were produced monthly between January through June, might as many as 5,000, 2015 Z06's be produced?
We all hope so!
