[elegant]

Lots of assumptions in this radical idea. And the corollary consequence, that only or mostly A8's would be available from then on? And before going into how that might be possible, credit goes to "ALF01" for PM'ing me lots of good info and raising this idea. Having 7-speed manuals become constrained in three weeks requires assumptions -- which all could be faulty, but then again?

While [email protected], smarter and greatly more experienced than me, thinks GM will produce about 4,000, 2015 Z06's, personally have thought 5,000 will be made. Highly probable not more than that, as Tadge said three weeks ago, the 5,600 orders they already have (one form or another) exceeds their 2015 Z06 production capability.

So assumption # 1: There will be 5,000, 2015 Z06's;
Assumption # 2: The 8-speed auto constraint ends on November 13th* (the end of 1-2 month time period GM stated in their internal September 18th memo to its dealers); and,
Assumption # 3: The A8 take rate continues for the rest of the year at its current 84% take rate, if anything grows higher (as delineated below).

Five of the top ten allocation dealers are already advertising for anyone, yes anyone, to PLEASE order a 7-M Z06 from them now. This means that they have completely gone through their HUGE pre-September Z06 priority lists, and found they have no one left who wanted a 7-M Z06. Many other top dealers are not advertising, but are able to now accommodate any new 7-M orderers.

Interesting thought to keep in mind, that when individuals first signed up, they did not know that the A8 was 1/4 second faster 0-to-60, .3 seconds faster in the quarter-mile than the M-7. Hence the earlier 84% A8 take rate, could therefore increase even more. Can GM produce that many A8's? We need to keep in mind that they are produced by a GM plant (who is capable of making 10's and 10's of thousands of them for GM pickups).

GM has already accepted approximately 800 Z06's orders for M-7 manuals.

With an 16 % 7-M take rate (all of these already ordered), an 84% A-8 take rate, assuming all these numbers are correct and will hold, there may be no more (or very few) order-able 2015 Z06 manuals. And, thus everything for the remainder of this model years, as I believe on Nov. 13th that the A8 ordering window will be opening, may be only, or will mostly be automatics. If these assumptions hold true, we could have a total November 13th constraint flip-flop, with manuals being at least partially, maybe totally constrained, and automatics flowing.

Might this thesis be an exaggeration? Sure. Might this happen? The probability of this is greater than most of us previously thought.


* The Nov. 13th date might really be November 20th, for we do not know when GM issued its September 18th memo whether they were thinking "7 day weeks" OR "2 months," for if the later, their September 18th memo might best translate into November 20th.

 

[ALF01]

Thanks for the credit John.....been thinking about this a little more.....

If this scenario holds true, one would think that any 7-M "constraint" would then not be based on availability of the actual transmission, but rather that all the open order slots would be filled with orders to be built with A8 units.

In other words, anyone wishing to change an existing A8 order to an M7 order would be able to do so, but any new customer, without an order already in the system, would most likely be out of luck regardless of tranny desired; and based on the existing orders already in the system, very few M7 cars would be built after the existing initial 800.....

 

[mjw930]

Considering the take rate forces it's own constraint (constraint would only be used to throttle orders when you believe demand exceeds supply) I don't think they would need to constrain them UNLESS, the Z06 M7 is materially different than the Z51 M7. If it's a unique box that would require additional logistics to have Tremec make beyond their initial projections then yes, it may go on constraint.

It will be interesting none the less.

 

[tmcternan]

This thread certainly is inspirational to those of us taking an initial hit by way of the 1-2 month delay in production of the new A-8's. The encouragement is deeply appreciated. John's statement regarding GM's capabilities of building "10's and 10's of thousands" of the A-8's for GM trucks is equally encouraging as well. At this point I'm wondering if GM will be doing anything different (Internals) for those transmissions intended for the Z06 versus the trucks?

 

[Ret9580]

I hope not, I'm constrained 3 weeks due to the visible carbon fiber roof and I just switched to the the M-7.......that would be just grand

 

[mjw930]

I hope not, I'm constrained 3 weeks due to the visible carbon fiber roof and I just switched to the the M-7.......that would be just grand

I think this thesis is Z06 specific. I don't thing anyone anticipates a constraint on Stingray M7's

 

[Mobius]

The TR-6070 comes in 3 versions, each with unique gearing and torque ratings.

http://www.tremec.com/anexos/File/TREMEC_TR-6070(2).pdf

 

[mjw930]

And if you think about this, if GM projected a 65% take rate on the A8 then Tremec should already have plans to make over 2000 of the "C" gear packs. The case's look to be identical with only the internal gear packs being different. I imagine the Z06 has a higher spec clutch too but regardless, pre-production planning should have allocated at least 2000 of them. Constraining the M7 just doesn't make sense.

 

[elegant]

Very good points, all of them. Maybe, as suggested, once the A8 window opens, the M7 becomes "list priority constrained," as all those who have been on lists move ahead due to their being earlier on that list. Not sure once that happens, how many will change their mind and now choose a M-7, having already "self-imposed" waited, then decided in spite of its being slower, I will now order a M-7 (though human nature being what it is, never say never).

 

[Redc7]

Another point of view does this mean that for 2015 there will be less than 1000 Z06's with 7M's?

 

[elegant]

If my original thesis is correct, "yes it does " but in my original post I use the words, "assumptions, if, maybe," so we really do not have any definitive word what the future amount will be.

 

[rdslon01]

I am with Mark on this. Decreased demand would not cause a constraint. Increased demand potentially could cause a constraint. If either the M7 or A8 is constrained, then I would much more expect the constraint to be on the option which has a much higher take rate than previously anticipated earlier this year when plans were being made on parts procurement.

I don't see why the M7 would get constrained. I have already speculated elsewhere here on the forum that the A8 may get constrained due to the higher-than-anticipated take rate.

Of course, time will tell all.

 

[Redc7]

It's possible the M7 could be on constraint based on the idea that GM as I recall uses a just in time build for parts meaning unlike in the past where manufactures would have stock piles of parts now order them as needed or planned. So they may have planned for X amount of M7's but the volume of orders may have exceeded expected demand. Of course just my $.02.....

 

[mjw930]

M7's had a much higher take rate in 2014 than they forecast yet they never went on constraint (that we know of). It's possible some of the Z51 constraints were M7 related but it was never confirmed. I just find the premise that M7's would be constrained because of a higher than projected A8 take rate to be unplausable.

 

[rdslon01]

M7's had a much higher take rate in 2014 than they forecast yet they never went on constraint (that we know of). It's possible some of the Z51 constraints were M7 related but it was never confirmed. I just find the premise that M7's would be constrained because of a higher than projected A8 take rate to be unplausable.

It is counterintuitive. It is the last thing that a company would want to do. When strained by a higher-than-anticipated take-rate on the A8, you don't make that strain higher on A8 by constraining M7, and thereby forcing more people to A8. Instead, you do exactly the opposite: you try to convince people to move from A8 to M7.

On the other hand, what if the higher-than-anticipated take-rate is something they can handle? In other words, it is a surprise, but it is not a strain because their manufacturing capabilities are elastic enough to handle it. Well, if you are looking to make a few more $$$, then you do constrain the no-cost option and push people to the higher cost option, IF there are no negative repercussions (no loss of sales now or later). I will not say this is a nice thing for a company to do, but I will say it might be possible to make much more $$$ this way, especially if you own the manufacturing of the higher cost item and have a much higher profit margin, but do not own the manufacturing of the lower cost option, and have much, much smaller margins on that.

Also, last spring when I kept believing that GM would include the A8 in 2015 StingRays while other people did not, one of the points I made was that GM corporate would want to retire the A6 as soon as possible because it is cheaper for them in the long-run to get that transmission to EOL (end-of-life) as soon as possible, and then they could start the year-clock on getting to the LSD (last-service-date, at least that is what we call it in the computer systems industry). The same is true of the M7. GM will save money if they can start preparing to end its life sooner instead of later. Now, they would not want to do something which would cause customer backlash, but I am sure they would prefer to have just one transmission option, for that option to be the higher priced one, and to own the manufacturing of it themselves (more control, higher margins). So, I am sure GM corporate wants to kill the M7, although the engineers at Corvette probably love the idea of offering both options.

Finally, since starting to watch GM's decisions in the Corvette world closely for the last 11 months, I have found that thinking in terms of what we would do in the computer systems industry has allowed me to correctly predict their moves in the automotive industry. Is it a coincidence? It could be. But, at the same time, their moves have all made excellent business sense, so, in that vein, they seem to be quite predictable.

As I posted elsewhere, my guess is the M7 will continue to be available in 2015 (way too much backlash to drop it).

A manual will not be available on the C8 (GM Corporate decision, not Corvette Engineering decision, but they will have to comply with the corporate business decision edict).

For the C7 in 2016 and beyond up to the C8, GM corporate will not want the M7, but they will probably keep it since ditching it would probably be too much negative PR.