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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
While we know that Z06 allocations are months away, with someone else reporting today and confirming what we believe, that Z06 allocations will be be received until September, just communicated with a dealership today, not medium or large sized but one which was one of original 900 dealerships which received initial StingRay allocation (and which got their first Z-51 in their dealership last October), that they will not be receiving a single 2015 Z06.

This confirms what we know, that getting a 2015 Z06 will be much, much harder than getting a Z-51 this year. Personally believe that it is going to be four times harder, that Z06's will be about four times scarcer. Basing this on about 20,000 Z-51's this year and about 4,750 Z06's next year. Today news might (repeat, "might") help some, based on how many Z-51's a dealership received this year, divide that amount by four and one could get a rough approximation of how many Z06's a dealer will get in 2015. At least this provides a starting point for consideration, though we truly do not yet know GM's basis for 2015 Z06 allocation.

And if this one dealership has been informed that they are not getting a single Z06 for 2015, might other dealers in a similar circumstances similarly been informed of this?

While only know this for a fact from several of the top five dealerships, their Z06 lists are already 100+ individuals long. Do not doubt that this is also true for the remaining top five...
 

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This could mean that dealers might try for premium over MSRP?

NO ZO for you!!
 

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but you can bet that dealer will take a deposit, lie to the customer it's on its way and then blame GM for not supplying....customer will come on here and raise hell....

and so it goes....
 

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but you can bet that dealer will take a deposit, lie to the customer it's on its way and then blame GM for not supplying....customer will come on here and raise hell....

and so it goes....
Sadly agree
 

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lol Love the video. Funny thing is that Seinfeld clip was exactly what I thought of when I started reading the thread

This could mean that dealers might try for premium over MSRP?
Honestly? I think that this will be the case for either the first production year or part of it. I have the feeling that anyone who absolutely, positively, unequivocally has to have the car the very second it hits the street is going to be treated like a victim because of the short supply. Not that there is anything intrinsically wrong with that, by the way. This is America, and capitalism translates to supply and demand, right?

Anyway, I have the feeling that once the initial fervor dies down, and assuming Chevy isn't treating this Vette as a severely limited production line, that after the first or second wave of them come off the line things will stabilize and the cars will be easier to procure.

I may be wrong here, but I don't see there being as huge a demand for a $100K American sports car just yet, and I have the feeling that the availability will be much greater and the price will stabilize in terms of at least not paying a huge premium to the dealer over MSRP. But if you are one of the ones waiting to buy the car the second it launches, then I am sure that you will pay for the privilege. I think I am lucky. I don't figure to be in the market for a new Vette until about 2016 or so. But if I was in the market for an early 2015 buy then I would probably be in the same boat as everyone else with regard to paying whatever I have to just to get the car. :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
There are more than a few on this forum who have written agreements for purchasing of a 2015 Z06 at list -- and those are agreements are with top dealerships, who have year after year, been forthright and honest in their customer commitments, and executed those commitments months or a year later exactly as originally promised.

Have zero doubt that I will get my 2015 Z06 from MacMulkin at list.

Regarding the position that we heard from so many prognosticators last fall, "that just you wait, initial demand will die down and you will be able to buy a Z-51 for $5,000 under list, that I am waiting until Spring, and your suckers are paying full price for list Z-51's now instead of being smart like me and waiting six months...". How did that work out for those folks? POORLY would be an understatement, for not only did those folks wait six months before they even placed their orders for the Z-51, but they ended up paying $3,200 more due to the Z-51 March 3rd price increase. We already heard a few months ago, in a videotaped interview still here to view on this forum, Harlan Charles reminding us of the second year C6 Z06 $5,000 Z06 price increase. Sure heard that as a "hint, hint," beware of this happening again for the C7 Z06 in the second year (perhaps sooner). This was after he earlier, in a January videotaped interview with Harlan and Kirk Bennion (also still here on this forum), that we are going to have Z06 constraints.

Thousands underestimated the demand for the Z-51 last fall, assuring us that the constraints would be over in a few months. Not only did that not happened, but just two days ago, as a result of GM investing millions into their Z-51 suppliers for the sole purpose of increasing capacity (reducing supplier parts constraints), production was increased to 170 Corvettes per day. And yet, we heard from Tadge and Harlan at the Bash, in spite of those supplier parts-capability-increases, state that Z-51 constraints will continue, and that all these investments will only result in "percentage point by percentage point slow increases in Z-51 production capacity."

Just as Z-51 constraints started last fall and will not end for over a full year, Z06 constraints will not end with the end of the 2015 model year. Personally doubt that Z06's will be non-constrained until at early 2016. The seventh generation Corvette is hot!!!
 

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Elegant, I think you misunderstood me. I was NOT admonishing anyone who wants the car at launch to wait, nor was I making global statements that the price would go down. I was simply saying that I would not be in the market for the car until about 2016, hopefully, so for me it would be a moot point anyway. I was also addressing the apprehension that some seem to have regarding paying substantially over sticker price. Believe me, if I was in the market for a Vette when the new Z06 launches, I would pay the "over sticker price" if I had to, or wait if I could summon the will to at least get sticker or maybe even a break.

Glad to hear you and others got the car/commitment at list. From the way some in the forum are talking, I got the distinct impression that people are bracing to pay pretty sizable amounts over sticker for the privilege of buying one at launch...one guy even said something about $25K over sticker?? Though perhaps that was more in jest?

Anyway, my strategy to wait (if I were going to consider buying the car at launch) was not to try to buy this beast at Invoice but, if people were going to be paying huge amounts over sticker, it might be prudent to wait until one could get the car at sticker. But since you already stated that you guys are getting firm commitments for the car at list, that answers my concern nicely.
 

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In my industry experience this car, in many places (maybe not the forum guys) , will bring huge amounts over sticker. I can see easily 20K....I know at least one in S fla that will get one, and this is what he is planning....He is still 10K over for z51's....
why?
1. it's based on a car that is already holding MSRP easily in many areas and is hot in itself
2. it's a very limited model run, so therefore you have the enthusiast AND the collectors - watch Mecum 6 months after release...
3. it's super high performance - the sheiks alone will add to the fire (and I'm not kidding)

and most of all - PEOPLE WILL PAY IT.... - NO, not the forum people, but the other 95% of the car buying public that really want it for a variety of reasons and have the money...hell there are lawyers that will just want it as their partners can't get it...(I've seen this so much in the biz)
 

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We can all speculate of course we are still many months away and anything can change. Who knows maybe GM is reading about all this pent up demand and saying holy crap we need to build more Z06's! The truth is all the above will happen, sticker, over sticker, shortages, people pissed off, orders and deposits taken not fulfilled, sold to the highest buyer and so forth. What all this talk is also doing not just here but other forums as well is creating a feeding frenzy. I'm ready to put a deposit down at 100 different dealers. Which means I'll bet many others have their names on more than one waiting list. So as John has mention before a dealer may have 50 or even 100 names on their list but when it comes to the rubber meets the road how many really follow thru? I do see a lot of 1100's in the future.........
 

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Regarding the dealer that is not getting a ZO6. How many 2014's did he sell???? Wouldn't that kinda give you an idea of his chances??? I have to say I really don't like the way GM does business. If you want the damn thing they should build you one. Lord Sakes afterall its about 95K in their pocket.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 · (Edited)
BGAP has been running on overtime for the last eight months. The problem is not GM, but getting suppliers to build quality intricate parts. To ameliorate that, GM did the unprecedented step of investing millions into some of those suppliers many months ago, suppliers they do not have an ownership interest in, to increase parts' capacity. BGAP has ecently ramped up capacity to averaging 175 Corvettes per day.

Try buying a new Ferrari, with its average two year wait. IF you want the hottest, latest Ferrari's forget it, for unless you were invited to buy one of those models (meaning you had bought progressively more expensive, more limited models many times previously), they are sold out before the model is even publicly announced. Yes, GM is far from Ferrari, but to criticize GM for not having enough units of the first year of the hottest sports car out there, the Corvette StingRay, and for 2015 the Z06....
 

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Sounds to me like they need to bring "in house" some of those supplier problems. Fore when you rely on others you are surely to be greatly dissapointed at some point. I've never been a fan of "excuses". Its a convenient way of not getting the job done.
 

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In my industry experience this car, in many places (maybe not the forum guys) , will bring huge amounts over sticker. I can see easily 20K....I know at least one in S fla that will get one, and this is what he is planning....He is still 10K over for z51's....
why?
1. it's based on a car that is already holding MSRP easily in many areas and is hot in itself
2. it's a very limited model run, so therefore you have the enthusiast AND the collectors - watch Mecum 6 months after release...
3. it's super high performance - the sheiks alone will add to the fire (and I'm not kidding)

and most of all - PEOPLE WILL PAY IT.... - NO, not the forum people, but the other 95% of the car buying public that really want it for a variety of reasons and have the money...hell there are lawyers that will just want it as their partners can't get it...(I've seen this so much in the biz)
And my guys in Central Florida told me they would be asking for 25K over. After knowing and watchng them from my order date (LAST JULY 7TH by the way) through my first 7K miles, I have no doubt they will hold that line....and probably get it.
 

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Gentleman...and Ladies. I know this thread is about pure speculation for said allotment of Z06's...in my experience for said "specialty" cars for the lack of a better term...I go by the 10% rule with GM when it comes to "specialty" Corvettes. Jan 2015 will see the 2015 Z06 Cpe get released and it's in my opinion that 10% of all production of when this Z06 starts actual build is what we shall see built in the same time period. With that being said, this info is just my educated guess. I went to my General Manager two yrs ago to press him for MSRP as the selling price. He understood my position and agreed. Of course two yrs ago we just dubbed the Z06 "the higher horse power" version of the C7.

Mike Furman

 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Thanks Mike, and as the current daily production rate will result in approximately 40,000-42,000, 2015 Corvettes being produced, using the 10% rate, would mean approximately 4,100 Z06's. This jibes very well with Harlan's statement during the Corvette Corral at Daytona in January, that they were planning monthly production at the same rate as the beginning years of the C6 Z06 (650/mo.). Since we believe that full Z06 production will only be six months during 2015 MY (Jan. through June), that would equate to approximately 3,900 units. Adding in the progressive, starting-slow-ramp-up in November and a two week shut-down around Christmas, we are again back to about 4,100 units, again the same 10% rate Mike shared above.
 

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And at 4100 units I doubt any will be avail for a fresh walk-in after 3 months or so.....let's see if that is true....

So following mikes guesstimate: he sold 277 for 1st 6 months, so he'll get 50-some z06’s?

Yeah they'll all be sold on pre- order I would think....
 

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Thanks Mike, and as the current daily production rate will result in approximately 40,000-42,000, 2015 Corvettes being produced, using the 10% rate, would mean approximately 4,100 Z06's. This jibes very well with Harlan's statement during the Corvette Corral at Daytona in January, that they were planning monthly production at the same rate as the beginning years of the C6 Z06 (650/mo.). Since we believe that full Z06 production will only be six months during 2015 MY (Jan. through June), that would equate to approximately 3,900 units. Adding in the progressive, starting-slow-ramp-up in November and a two week shut-down around Christmas, we are again back to about 4,100 units, again the same 10% rate Mike shared above.
John,
You need to minus from your equation production numbers from Aug 11th thru approx Nov 1st. Approx 9500 units subtracted from your 41,000 unit guess and then take 10%. So my guess is 3,150 2015 Z06's will be produced.
 

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What will be the limiting factor of Z06 production? It can no longer be the chassis. Will it be the new LT4 engine? It just seems to me that they could really ramp this up, if they so choose.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Sounds to me like they need to bring "in house" some of those supplier problems. Fore when you rely on others you are surely to be greatly dissapointed at some point. I've never been a fan of "excuses". Its a convenient way of not getting the job done.
I commend GM, as their goal was producing 30,000 StingRays this first C7 year, and in spite of supplier issues, they will sell about 36,000 units this year;

GM has invested tens of millions in suppliers since February to increase production capacity (suppliers they do not even have an ownership interest in);

the StingRay has won more major awards in the first year after its reveal than any other car, truck or SUV in history;

and, in spite of it all, they successfully increased then annual production rate last month, so that they will sell more than 40,000 Corvettes in 2015 MY.

And in the near future, Corvette win how many more major awards with the newly introduced world-class Z06.

Yes, some hiccups and things to work on, but I see the Corvette glass not as half empty, but as mostly full, with sometimes water running over the top.
 
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