[davelv]

It appears that the cost increase as well as fulfilling initial demand may finally be slowing the sales rate. Cars.com usually had about 1800 C7s for sale and now it is climbing quickly in the last week to almost 2200. Additionally at least one forum dealer is now offering $5k off convertibles.

Or perhaps it is that people are now waiting for the 2015 with the multitude of changes.

It will be interesting to see what the discounts will be on leftover 2014s in another month or two, and if the demand for 2015s stays steady.

My guess is that GM will have to start including more content for no price increase as there just is not a market for $65-80k Corvettes to the tune of 20000 units/year. The >35000 units/year occurred last decade during the days of home price appreciation allowing equity to be used to splurge on toys, but also when the Corvette was not as expensive.

 

[johnu]

For sure as the initial group of buyers who have to have one...get one (I get mine in a week). Sales will settle into a pattern of having to need to be sold vs taking orders. With the greatness of this 7th generation I would think 2015 will be strong with all the Z06 magazine test drives and exposure which will also help sales of base & Z51 models. In 2016 the magazine exposure will be over and advertising will need to be used to bring in new buyers who's Porsche or jaguar lease is expiring. They don't need to advertise to us...existing Corvette owners, we are the "choir" who will purchase another one when finances permit.

 

[glen e]

slowing?...........

As long as the stock mkt stays strong so do retirement/401k plans for many buying vettes. So from I see in the industry:
1. Vette sales nationally are still strong, days supply is one of the lowest out there.
2. Financing is still strong, housing is picking up
3. You csn look at a few dealers that are giving discounts but the majority of urban dealers are still getting MSRP.

The 14 build out will go fine and 15 will be another great year for vettes, GM is not gonna have to do a damn thing to sell them, except make them. Dint look for trunk money on the car unless Wall Street crashes like in 08.

 

[elegant]

Well thought out "johnu." The comparatively lower amount of sales of other Corvette models in 2015, could allow GM to produce more Z06's in its 2015 six-month production year.

About six months ago Tadge Juechter said we have learned our lessons from C6 production, that it is not long term efficient to go to a second shift to temporarily produce more cars. He took flak for that statement, made at a time of week after week of constraints, but it will turn out years from now, that he was right.

However, regarding the question raised in the original post, which used analysis based on a short term look into Cars.com inventory, that could be a short term anomaly. Six months from now, or better yet a year from now, we can better gauge Corvette sales, to see if sales are becoming soft, or not. However, with 2014 StingRay sales goal of 25,000 to 30,000 units, and with a current projected 37,000 units produced this year, even if Cars.com is correct and there are 2,200, or even 3,0000 unsold, that would be way, way less than the car industry's, cross-brand long term desired goal of maintaining an inventory stock of 60 days at dealerships -- in fact just be a one month dealership supply.

 

[MYKZDRM]

Does anyone think GM may be underestimating the demand for the Z06? Or would the numbers stay limited to increase collectability?

Michael

 

[LT1xL82]

Does anyone think GM may be underestimating the demand for the Z06? Or would the numbers stay limited to increase collectability?

Michael

I do not think GM is making decisions based on collectability. Actually, I think collectability is somewhat irrelevant to GM (and if I were them, I'd feel the same.). Desirability, stoking demand, influencing demand for sister products, product/brand image, profitability et al are more important. Long term, profitable sales keeps a company in business. Collectability does not. The Edsel is collectible, the Stingray is profitable!

 

[MYKZDRM]

Well, they did sell limited editions in 2014. Limited Z06 sales could spur increased C7 sales. I guess the intent wouldn't be for collectability, but that would be a result for many buyers of the Z06.

Michael

 

[johnu]

What we call collectibility is in reality a manufacturer producing 1 less item then what they guess the market will purchase. Over production drives down prices forcing rebates, incentives etc.

 

[elegant]

What will limit 2015 Z06 production is only one thing (short of another major recession as Glen mentioned above), and that is the capability of its part suppliers to produce more quality parts. Even five months ago, Harlan Charles said there would be Z06 constraints during the 2015 model year, mentioning especially Z07 carbon-ceramics brakes and carbon fiber aero parts (which we know also effect stage 2 visible carbon fiber aero pieces). (He did not mention, nor did he preclude other parts.)

Perhaps those who are willing to purchase stage 1's might not experience a constraint (or experience a lesser constraint)? Sound familiar, i.e., a total parallel with dealer's this year calling their Z-51 customers and asking, "if you are willing to drop your Z-51 option, I have allocation for a base Corvette in this week's consensus?" Deja vu ahead.

 

[LT1xL82]

Sound familiar, i.e., a total parallel with dealer's this year calling their Z-51 customers and asking, "if you are willing to drop your Z-51 option, I have allocation for a base Corvette in this week's consensus?" Deja vu ahead.

Might well be the case. I'll likely hold out for exactly what I ordered with little room for compromise. Hopefully that will not seriously delay delivery!

 

[JS1977]

I hope this is not the case as I would hate for someone to settle due to restraints on certain parts.

Does anyone know exactly what the difference is between stage 1 and stage 2? Besides the visible carbon fiber?

 

[glen e]

Based on prod numbers, I can't believe any z06s will be left open to buy when it's finally released......

 

[elegant]

I hope this is not the case as I would hate for someone to settle due to restraints on certain parts. Does anyone know exactly what the difference is between stage 1 and stage 2? Besides the visible carbon fiber?

Nothing! Hence, why if the CFV visible carbon fiber aero stage 2 pieces were to go on constraint, preventing a stage 2 order from being accepted, aftermarket options, such as we already have and will have more of from our great forum vendors, will be very attractive to many.

 

[elegant]

Might well be the case. I'll likely hold out for exactly what I ordered with little room for compromise. Hopefully that will not seriously delay delivery!

Fully agreed that while maybe one or two "minor" options might be okay to removed, my key options will not be ones willing to compromise on. Do not buy a new Corvette very few years, rather once per generation, and therefore will not compromise on my key "must haves."

However, as being discussed in more detail in linked thread, there will be great options if the visible CFZ pieces (CFV) were to hold up a stage 2 order (as that specific option was mentioned by Harlan as a probable constraint item).

http://www.stingrayforums.com/forum/2015-corvette-z06/4989-controversial-stage-2-spoiler-2.html

 

[davelv]

Today over 2350 for sale.

 

[elegant]

Interesting to note that after a couple of constraint cycles not showing a constraint on the Z-51 package, it's back today, at 55%.

 

[tmcternan]

I know we're seeing allot of buzz about the much anticipated Z06 and it appears there's going to be a huge demand, particularly at the beginning, but I keep remembering what a very reliable source told me while putting down a deposit on the Z06. Even with very impressive numbers of deposits made, we're looking at the Z06 either approaching or going over $100K, depending on selected options, which is about $40K more than the base 1LZ Stingray. I was advised approximately 30% of those placing deposits drop out for various reasons from divorces to financial downturns. In those years during recessions, the drop out rate has increased to as much as 40%. So, unless there's a major change in past statistics, I'm anticipating the initial pre-sales or pre-orders to drop off substantially from all the buzz that's going on right now. There's also a number of individual that are planning on waiting for the 2016-2017 MY in order to avoid the first year woes. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the initial surge for the Z06 is going to be brisk, I just have the feeling it's not going to be overwhelming like the Stingray. These are just my thoughts and personal opinion based on what I've read and heard. I could be totally wrong here.

 

[elegant]

While I do not "multiple dealer deposit," know many who have already placed themselves on several dealer's Z06 lists. Hence, we are going to have a lot of folks who for this additional reason, drop off the current Z06 lists.

When the StingRay came out, more than a few folks ordered them, but when their StingRay arrived at the dealership, their attempts to get their loan failed. Several friends were able to locate/buy a StingRay as far back as last October as a result of others' financial issues. This also going to happen not just to additional StingRay buyers, but even more so for Z06 folks, especially for those who, another compounding factor, failed to confirm ahead that they can get insurance at an acceptable rate for the Z.

http://www.stingrayforums.com/forum/2015-corvette-z06/4167-insuring-your-z06-caution.html

However, financing capability, and the ability to get reasonable cost insurance are both going to also have some effect on some StingRay purchasers, especially as the StingRay is getting a lot other brand buyers to step up and buy their first Corvette.

Yet, all in all, 2015 StingRay sales will continue to be very, very strong, and Z06's will be in very, very short supply at a reasonable price.

 

[LT1xL82]

Interesting to note that after a couple of constraint cycles not showing a constraint on the Z-51 package, it's back today, at 55%.

Does that mean 55% of the cars can be a Z-51 or 55% of the cars can not be a Z51?

 

[mjw930]

does that mean 55% of the cars can be a z-51 or 55% of the cars can not be a z51?

55% can be.