I seriously doubt if GM has sourced enough parts for an 85% take rate for Z06 A8 for model year 2015. Given that type of take rate, I now expect the A8 to be on constraint even after it is available to be ordered.
If people are not willing to change to M7, they will be passed by others who are no where near the top of the dealers' internal order lists. We could have people that would normally be on a list so deep they would only be able to get a 2016 now jumping over most everyone and to the front of the line. Also, if there are NO takers even when going deeper down on customer lists, how ironic would it be for manual Z06s to be ordered for dealer stock?
Talking about hitting the nail on the head with a 32 ounce hammer, especially 7-M customers jumping ahead surprisingly.
You are describing reality, not just later, but this consensus, and, increasingly for the next one or two. Some dealers will be ordering Z06's for stock this weekend, and some customers who yesterday did not remotely think they had a chance to get a 2015 Z06, will also be ordering one this very consensus.
Not referring to MacMulkin, for they will fill their allocation with sold customer orders before this consensus is over, but some other dealers in America. Give MacMulkin a call and probably get your 7-M Z06 coupe ordered/accepted right now, 603.888.1211.
Your prediction of the soon future is this weekend's reality. Have been, in the last two days, getting a PM or two from two different types of folks, those who long gave up on getting a 2015 Z06 because "they thought they were late to the party" and had previously decided to had to wait and get a 2016 Z, and those who had not even considered getting a Z06 (instead planning on getting a StingRay and supping it up), but are now deciding to make a switch to the Z06, i.e., a getting 650/650, a wide bodied beauty is now dancing in their heads.
Talked three days ago to a top dealer who is now working through the bottom 1/4 of their large Z06 priority list due to their 85+ % A8 take rate.
Also dancing, as you suggested, will be smaller dealers who thought on September 17th that they had no chance of getting a 2015 Z06. I talked with two dealers earlier this summer, who were the "told no 2015 Z06 for you." Both of these dealers learned on September 18th, that since they were qualified for ordering a 2015 StingRay, that they would be getting at least one '15 Z, and have been, for the month since then, saying to their special customer, "I can get you one in the Spring," and are now, today, thinking over their one or two person Z06 customer list, "who wants a manual coupe either this consensus or the next?" Oh the phone calls that will be going out today and the next few days, both from customers positively shocked they now have a good chance at getting one (especially if they are willing to give up on a constrained option or two), and from smallish, certainly medium-sized dealers equally surprised that they will be able to get one for stock or for one of their "yes, 7-M for me" customers this/next consensus.
And what will both the customers and the dealers in this, for them, fortuitous circumstance be ordering? Not only a stripper. Instead, a 2LZ with Nav/PDR, (perhaps even a 3LZ), with special colored calipers, choice of wheels, choice of interior colors, hood stinger or dual stripes, comp seats, and more, a car whose capabilities were far more than anyone dreamed prior to the 650/650 announcement.
And here is a "reverse very recent surprise," that due to the market and world uncertainly, through in ebola and other fears into the mix, many who had aggressive portfolios and consequently just lost a huge amount of "asset value," will have to reluctantly bail on their Z06 dreams for financial reasons, especially this past week.
As that old saying goes, a little modified, we live in interesting times. "Shocking" is an overused word, but thinking back to where we have come in literally one month, totally applicable. And sad to me, for I have friends personally in this predicament, they thought less than two months ago that they would be getting a very early A8, but are now watching hundreds (480 manuals were ordered on September 18th), soon to be thousands of M-7 folks, all jumping ahead of them, now hearing rumors upon rumors about A8 delays due to lack of track cooling, and not sure when they will be even able to get up to bat.
