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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
It's hard to say for sure if everyone that wants a Z06 will be able to get one.

But if history is any lesson when I look back at the time the C4 ZR-1 was being introduced. It was on the cover of every magazine. It was at the time the fastest production Corvette GM had built and most expensive starting at $60,000 in 1990. Just like the new Z06 there was a lot of pent up demand.

Even though the ZR-1 was MSRP at $60K many dealer were getting as much as $100,000 for the car.

However by the end of the '90 model year there were '90 ZR-1's in dealers showrooms still for sale. GM built only 3,049 ZR-1's that year. In 1991 they built only 2,044 and people could buy ZR-1's well under MSRP. In fact I bought a 1990 ZR-1 in '93 with 1,700 miles on it for $32K.

If you look at the production numbers for C6 Z06's you will see there were a couple of years they made around 7,000 but quickly dropped down to just hundreds the following years.

So looking back you will see that the higher performance Corvettes production is always much lower.

When I asked a GM person at Carlisle about the production numbers for the new Z06 he didn't say to me something like we can only build x amount what he said was they want to control the production number in such a way so they don't ramp up to build a lot only to have the demand drop suddenly later. In other words these are smart peopl, my bet is they have looked at the production number for cars like this in the past and have calculated what they believe the demand will be.

For a car that brings such a high price tag for GM believe me they would love to sell a million of these. The truth is not a lot of people can afford a Corvette never mind a Z06. Look at it another way only about 1 1/2 million Corvettes have been built since 1953. There are certain model of cars out there today that sell more than this in 1 to 2 years.

For those of us wanting to buy a Z06 it can appear that there is a waiting list of 50,000 buyers so we're thinking we will never get one. But if we could sit down and talk to every dealer who had a Z06 waiting list and added the totals up you might be surprise by the numbers and most of these dealers will tell you they will see around a 30% drop out rate so a dealer with a 100 people on their list might see 70 real buyers.

Another history lesson look at the new C7 Stingray and how in the beginning everyone was worried about getting one as well. Not only could you get one but they were sitting on dealers lots and showrooms half way thru the year and you could even buy them at a discount.

So will history repeat itself? We can only wait and see and look back a year from now see how far off the mark I was.
 

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By 2017 there will be no "waiting lists" and an ample supply on the used market. We saw the same thing with the C6 Z06, like this example.
 

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There is a significant difference between that car and the new Z06; I don't think that will be the case whatsoever, unless of course Chevrolet decides to list the Z06 as an upper class Corvette and manufacture in accordance with demand; that of which it doesnt appear they are doing this year.
 

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By 2017 there will be no "waiting lists" and an ample supply on the used market. We saw the same thing with the C6 Z06, like this example.
My timeline is shorter, I predict they will be readily available early into the 2016 MY production cycle, I.e. This time next year.
 

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IMO, the C7 Z06 is not comparable to the C4 ZR-1.
By the 1990 MY, the C4 had been in production for 7 years. There was no excitement for the C4 Corvette.
The difference is that the C7 is still a very hot car and will remain so for another few years. IMO the '15-'17 MY's will be great for the Z06.

GM should take a cue from Ford on how to handle production volumes of the Z06. Ford VERY successfully metered out GT500's to the extent that they never offered substantial discounts or rebates to move them, and as of last week as 2015 Mustang production started, there were only 85 unsold units throughout the entire country (and many of them are low-option cars). GM should not flood the market with these cars. This will keep demand high, prices solid and excitement high IMO.
S.
 
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And the ZR1 option price back in 1990 was about $32,000 -- more than the base car. Betting on Glen E's "unobtanium" too -- unless one is willing to pay $10K or more above sticker. Yes, this initial frenzy will subside, though my personal projection is that routine purchases as list will not be until about February, 2016.

Harlan told us back as far as January, there will be constraints on both the carbon-ceramic brakes (ergo Z07's) and carbon fiber aero pieces (ergo also stage 2's) and with every one of the top five dealers having lists of 150 or more, and Chevy Corvette dealers numbered approximately 500th in allocation to 3100th in allocation not even being able to get a single 2015 Z06, there are going to be, IMO, about 5,000 folks who wanted a Z06, going to be at the ready line for the 2016's. With a build rate of approximately 675 per month (per Harlan, again at Daytona in January), there's seven months of pent up 2016 production right there. Both on a six-day Caravan, then here at BG the NCM 20th Anniversary Celebration, kept running into folks who said, "I am not even going to try for my Z06 until 2016 MY."

I know many remember my February thread, "Need to Be On Z06 List".... I think I will start a new thread, "Need To Be On 2016 Z06 Waiting List" for those who aren't already comfortably placed on a "dealer with Z06 allocation" list for a '15.
 

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IMO, John, glen e and Snorman are spot on with this. Know what Redc7 is saying as well, but a number of additional factors or variables are also present that weren't in previous generations. Another factor to take into consideration is, as future production proceeds and model years continue, the price is only going to increase as with anything. A careful balance between demand and those increases are going to have to be factored in. But for now, looking at the demand, I see a solid two to three MY run before tapering off. There will also be those, out of frustration that may very well drop out and buy that Porsche, BMW or Audi because of availability.
 

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When I asked a GM person at Carlisle about the production numbers for the new Z06 he didn't say to me something like we can only build x amount what he said was they want to control the production number in such a way so they don't ramp up to build a lot only to have the demand drop suddenly later. In other words these are smart people my bet is they have looked at the production number for cars like this in the past and have calculated what they believe the demand will be.

For a car that brings such a high price tag for GM believe me they would love to sell a million of these.
For many months now I have been asking why GM could not churn out Z06 at the same rate as they can churn out StingRays (that is, devote an entire week to building 855 cars of Z06 (171/day * 5 days/week) and 0 StingRays). Basically, I have believed this to be possible for a long time based on my trust in the engineering talent at Corvette to be so forward-thinking that they built-in such abilities for Z06 production capacity when the StingRay was still just a concept on paper starting to take form.

Just this week John confirmed they can run Z06 back-to-back-to-back-to-back, so it seems as of it may be possible, if suppliers can come through to build that many. I know what was said about the Stage 2 and Z07 constraints, but I wonder if anything will limit production of the Stage 1? Maybe the LT4 would. We will have to see.

Anyway, Redc7 I find it interesting that you were told at Carlisle they will control the production numbers.

There will also be those, out of frustration that may very well drop out and buy that Porsche, BMW or Audi because of availability.
GM knows this. GM wants to maximize profits. As such, they should sell as many as they can. Therefore, build to the demand of as many as possible to capture the pent-up demand, and then slack off after that pent-up demand has been satisfied.

I think we will see more than 10% for the Z06. Will we see 15%? I don't know. I personally would not be surprised, but all the experts say, "No way!", so that causes me to doubt 15%. Anyway, I will be a big boy and say I was wrong if the production gives 10% or less. Until then, I will have full faith in the Corvette engineers and management that they will be able to build much more than that, and that they will do so.
 

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Discussion Starter #10 (Edited)
Of course anyone of us could be right or partially right. Anything can happen, GM could increase production, (due to slowing down of Stingray sales), they could decrease production because of constraints or a QC problem or many other factors. In any regards it will be an interesting year regarding the Z06. Those who really want one will be on the edge of our seats. It will be the most satisfying and the most frustrating year. :eek:

The biggest factor of all of this is the short build season. If they started building the Z06's at the same time they started building the '15 Stingrays it would be a different ballgame.

So let's get the popcorn out and watch this play thru.......
 

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