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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Sometimes polls on StingRay Forums and other C7 forums are amazingly accurate! Sometimes they are amazingly inaccurate in predicting national Corvette purchasing decisions.

Why are, sometimes, collective forum polls/post sometimes wildly incorrect? The primary answer is that less then half of all new Corvette buyers even know there are Corvette forums, and of those who know about their existence, way more than half chose not to participate in them. Putting these two factors together, forum membership is about 10% of new Corvette buyers, and even then, most forum members join a forum, learn what it is they specifically want, and then become inactive members. Conversely forms are an excellent source of learning from the collective expertise of other forum members in most areas. However in the area of predicting future actual Corvette purchase option decisions, forums are, on average collectively, "not very good" in predicting future buying decisions.

Let us take two specific choice areas and see whether collective C7 forum members did a good job or not.

1) Z06 Transmission Choice:

If one looks at the several "transmission purchase polls" on StingRay Forums and others, one would conclude that about half of 2015 Z06 purchasers want to purchase the Z06's 8-speed automatic transmission. Overall those polls were correct, that a majority do want the eight speed automatic transmission, even though those purchasers learned a few weeks ago, that that decision would delay their Z06 at least one month, possibly two.

However in talking to two top five allocation dealers recently, after those dealers contacted their individual Z06 customers on their priority lists, they were both surprised that they had to go "far deeper" down their Z06 customer priority lists in order to get enough manual transmission orders to fill this first cycle Z06 ordering process. More than a few Z06 customers who were not in the top part of those dealers "Z06 order priority list," got a pleasant surprise in the last week when they got an email or a phone call saying, "I can place your manual transmission order in this first consensus."

At these two top dealers, automatic transmission orders exceeded 75% of their Z06 orders! What, more than 3/4's of Z06 customers nationwide want an automatic transmission for their Z06??? YES! Will not be more specific with what I learned, as both dealerships were not comfortable with my sharing more detailed, specific customer preferences/actual numbers for their dealerships.

2) Z06 Wheel Choice:

Here the collective results of several forums polls/posts are even more inaccurate in predicting customer purchase decisions.

StringRay Forum (SRF) members, by our posts, said that beautiful Pearl Nickel wheels would be their first choice, with 34% so stating. This was very surprising, as the closest Z-51 StingRay visual equivalent, silver, was chosen by just 16% of 2014 Z-51 buyers (GM statistic, through April 3rd).

Also considering 2014 history, as black wheels were chosen by 48% of Z-51 buyers, one would believe that black wheels would again be the predominate 2015 Z06 wheel choice. Well, not exactly, for even in our SRF "Z06 Specs" post, black wheels came in only second, with just 31% of SRF members saying they would purchase the black wheel option. However, collectively, on all C7 forums, the greatest numbers of posts were, "I am going to buy black wheels."

Last place: SRF members are part of the national trend and "going to the dark side," (abandoning the previous 60 year Corvette history of having chromes be the most selected wheel choice), as only 6% of our members said their Z06 would have chrome wheels.

Spectra Gray wheels were chosen by less than 30% of SRF members and based on looking at a wider array of C7 forums, again roughly 1/3 of posts indicated that buyers would purchase the Spectra Gray wheels.

However, in talking with a top five allocation dealer, surprise, as he said, "MOST of my orders I am submitting in the first cycle will be for Spectra Gray wheels." And another top dealer indicated he was "surprised at how so, so many of my customers are ordering the Spectra Gray wheels." GM appears to have a huge hit with Spectra Grays!!!

Cannot wait until we learn, perhaps six months from now, all the different "take rates" on every Z06 option -- including exterior and interior colors. More surprises probably lie ahead. For example, despite GM being besieged since the StingRay came out, with requests for an orange color option for 2015 Corvettes, might Daytona Sunrise Orange Metallic (DSOM II) become like Lime Rock Green when lots expressed initial interest in it, but few purchased that color, and thus might DSOM II become another "one hit wonder?" Or might there be a ground swell of purchasing decisions for this beautiful color?

Lastly, one related spec, thanks to "LT4 Awesome," who was told this by his dealer, 93 Z07's will be accepted for the September 18th consensus... So far, have not been able to corroborate this number, but find it interesting, for GM's has not told us its predicted Z07 take rate, nor how many Z07 orders they would allow for this first DOSP.
 

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Thanks for the post, John. Those take rates are very interesting!

I personally do not believe that there will only be 93 Z07 allowed in the first consensus. That number is way, way too low, I think.

Here is what we know.

1) From the constraint report, we know the Z07 has a 60% constraint. So 3/5 of the orders for this consensus can be Z07.
2) You were told by multiple sources that dealers had released to them approximately 9% of their overall total 2015 allocations given.

If only 93 Z07 will be allowed this consensus, that would mean that only a total of 1722 2015 Z06 will be built, which is way, way, way too low.

I conclude that many, many more Z07 will be allowed to be built this consensus, far more than 93.
 

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I don't remember the exact numbers, but it looks like the A8 MIGHT be more popular in the Z06 than the Stingray! True?
 

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Wow, thanks, John.

So if there are only 91 Z07 this constraint cycle, and they are at 60% constraint, then that means that 91/60%=152 total Z06 for this consensus will be given out.

Then, if I understood correctly, you reported that dealers were getting approximately 9% of their total MY 2015 Z06 allocations in this first consensus. 152/9%=1689 total Z06 for MY 2015. That is much, much too small.

What am I missing?

Thanks!
 

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Discussion Starter #7 (Edited)
Your math is flawless, but perhaps GM wants to load up the first consensus, disproportionately, with stage 1's? Or, does not want to allow many Z06 customer orders of any kind for the first month or two, or wants to give our a fair amount to the big allocation dealers, with nothing or almost nothing for this first DOSP (maybe not even for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc) for the smaller allocation dealers. Again, nothing wrong with your math.

I absolutely agree that we are going to see many thousands more than 1,722, 2015 Z06's, and now that GM's announced that every "StingRay qualifying dealer" will get at least one Z06, we might see as many as 5,000 to 6,000 Z06's during the 2015 model year.

And look what additional new info another birdie dropped off, also for the current consensus. Not able to figure this all out yet, so just sharing the info that I am receiving.


And because one can not order a Z07 unless one also has a CFV or a CFZ aero package coupled with it, these latest numbers also do not make sense unless GM had a separate national allocation, constraint (# 1427) of at least 168 CFZ's....(with the "overage" of CFZ's above 168 then available for stage 2 Z06's). That conclusion does not jibe with the bottom line of the above chart unless the total number of CFZ's available nationwide was 264 (96 for stage 2's and the remaining 168 for the Z07's that did not order CFV).
 

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Wow, thanks, John, this message from birdie #2 makes perfect sense.

There are 289 Z07 national allocations for this consensus. At 60% constraint, that means 482 total Z06 for all stages for this consensus.

We also know from the information from Gates Chevy World that Z07&CFV is 25% constrained. If my national number of total Z06 above is correct (482) then 482*25% should be line #2 (constraint #01848) from Birdie #2. 482*25%=120.5 which is essentially matching the 121 given by Birdie #2.

Also, for constraint #01850 (line #3) CFZ-Z07 we have 96. From Gates Chevy World, that should be 20%. 20% of our 482 total Z06 estimate for this consensus gives 96.4, which is so close to the 96 listed above. I think this is it.

Now, if there really are 482 total Z06 for this consensus, and if we can assume all dealers (both large and small) get 9% of their allocations released this first consensus (okay, that is a big assumption: maybe larger dealers get 9% of their allocations released now, but smaller dealers may get a smaller percentage of their allocations released at this first consensus), but making that assumption means a total of at least 482/9%=5356 model year Z06 of all types would be built. That is believable.

Also, I think the way to compute CFZ constraints is that its constraint minus the Z07 constraint is 20%. But the Z07 constraint is 60%. So that implies the CFZ constraint can be as high as 80% (so CFZ-Z07=20%) if a dealer orders the maximum number of Z07 allowed (60%); however, CFZ could be as low as a 20% constraint for another dealer who does not choose to order any Z07. That is what I read constraint #01850 as: take the percent of Z07 you ordered, add 20% to that, and that is the number of CFZ you are allowed.

If that is correct, then the number of CFZ could be as low as 96 (line #3) or as high as 96+289=385 (line #1 plus line #3).

In other words, it seems to me that GM will reward the high volume Z07 dealerships with the opportunity to order more CFZ than GM will to dealerships which do not order a lot of Z07.
 
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Thanks once again for the help this provides a newbi. I just failed to move my order forward because my automatic transmission was not available in this round. I depend more on the information you post than from my dealer so I hope you keep it coming. It would be nice to have a running post on restraints and based upon that and other factors estimate deliveries. In my life station "I don't buy green bananas", but I am willing to wait for what I want with my car. Thanks again, Racer X
 

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Discussion Starter #10
We all have to sometimes compromise, but always advise against compromising when something is important to you. Imagine as one example, someone compromised on getting their automatic transmission, called their dealer this morning and said, "I'll go with the manual trans, because I can't wait any more." At first glance, understandable, but what if that person commuted daily in stop and go traffic, or, worse yet, lived in San Francisco or Seattle or similar, where just four or five severe up hill stop lights could toast the clutch (hill holding feature notwithstanding).

Many of us can wait a little longer, for we have waited for this car for years already.
 

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Discussion Starter #11 (Edited)
Some more Z06 ordering preference stats, with a thanks to "LT4 Awesome" for doing the majority of the work in this compilation!!!

Interior Trim Level:

1LZ = 22%
2LZ = 26%
3LZ = 52%


Stage 1 or, Stages 2 or Stage 3/Z07 (with specific aero chosen):

Stage 1: 39%

Stage 2 with CFZ: 22%

Stage 2 with CFV: 13 %

Stage 3 with CFZ: 12%

Stage 3 with CFV: 14%

Note: With very few exceptions, above preferences are "intention statements," as ordering constraints are not factored in.
 
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